
How can POS Data Predict Your Next Best-Selling Item?
Running a restaurant means making many decisions every day, from what dishes to feature to how much stock to order. But what if you didn’t have to rely on instinct or trial and error to decide what stays on the menu? What if the data you already have could show you your next best-seller before it even peaks?
That’s the value of your POS system. It’s not just a tool to process payments; it’s a window into what your guests want, when they want it, and what keeps them coming back.
What Kind of Data Are You Sitting On?
Your POS system is already collecting valuable data, often more than you realize. Understanding these insights can help you improve service, streamline costs, and boost revenue.
Here is a breakdown of the key data points most POS systems already track, and what they mean for your restaurant.
Itemized sales by date and time tells you what items were sold, when they were sold, and in what quantities. For example, you might discover that your signature pasta dish sells best on Friday and Saturday nights, or that breakfast sandwiches peak on weekday mornings. By analyzing this data over days, weeks, and seasons, you can identify which dishes are consistently popular and adjust staffing or promotions accordingly.
Order frequency and guest count shows how many guests you serve and how often they visit. This information can reveal whether your restaurant is attracting repeat customers or mainly new diners. For example, if you notice a high number of solo diners during lunch, you might create quick, affordable specials targeting them. Conversely, if group bookings increase on weekends, you might offer group menus or bigger tables.
Add-ons, customizations, and modifiers show what extra options your customers like. For example, if many guests add extra avocado to their salads or swap fries for sweet potato fries, this insight could help you create new menu items or promote popular add-ons as upsells. If a particular modifier is requested frequently, turning it into a regular menu option could boost sales.
Inventory usage combined with POS sales helps track how ingredients are being consumed. For instance, if your POS data shows high sales of chicken dishes but your inventory is running low on chicken breasts more quickly than expected, you can adjust ordering to avoid shortages. It also helps you identify dishes with high food costs or wastage, so you can optimize recipes and reduce losses.
Payment types and average spend track how customers pay and how much they spend on average. For example, if customers paying by card tend to spend more, you might offer card-only promotions or encourage mobile payments. Monitoring average spend helps evaluate if promotions, menu changes, or service styles affect how much guests order.
Channel (dine-in, delivery, takeaway) differentiates where sales come from. For example, your burger might be a top seller for dine-in guests but not perform well in delivery orders due to packaging issues. Knowing this allows you to tailor menus specifically for delivery or dine-in, improving customer satisfaction and reducing returns.
Customer habits through loyalty programs can reveal who your regular customers are and what they like to order. For instance, you might find that frequent diners prefer healthier options, while occasional visitors order indulgent dishes. This insight enables you to send personalized offers or create targeted marketing campaigns, improving guest loyalty and frequency.
Together, these data points create a comprehensive picture of what’s happening inside your restaurant. Using this information strategically can improve your menu, marketing, staffing, inventory control, and customer experience.
Why This Matters
Merchants who analyze point-of-sale data across both online and physical stores saw significant increases in sales volume and revenue growth. One retailer more than doubled its revenue by aligning promotions and stock with product demand.
If these findings hold for large retailers, the same logic applies even more strongly to restaurants, where every menu change affects customer satisfaction, cost control, and operational efficiency.
Turn Data into Actionable Strategy
Collecting data is only the first step. What truly matters is how you act on it. POS reports are not just numbers; they are decision-making tools. Yet too often, valuable insights sit untouched in reports or dashboards.
To turn data into results, create a clear routine:
Set aside time weekly or monthly to review POS trends. Define what success means for your restaurant. This might be increasing average check size, reducing waste, or improving table turnover. Establish clear indicators for each dish, such as how often it is ordered, its profit margin, and how often customers customize it. Use your findings to guide not only your menu but also staffing schedules, promotional activities, pricing, and ordering.
When data review becomes part of your daily routine, you begin making proactive choices. For example, if data shows that a new sandwich is gaining popularity rapidly, you can promote it more heavily and ensure you have enough ingredients in stock. Conversely, if an item consistently underperforms, it may be time to consider replacing it.
What You Can Do with POS Insights
- Start using your POS data to make smarter decisions and find future best-sellers with these approaches:
- Review sales trends over time to spot dishes growing steadily in popularity. For example, if your vegan burger sales are increasing month over month, it may be time to highlight it in your marketing.
- Identify which items sell best at certain times. If your brunch menu items perform exceptionally well on weekends but poorly on weekdays, consider promoting brunch only on weekends or adjusting the weekday menu.
- Look for combinations customers frequently order together. If many guests order a Caesar salad with grilled chicken, bundle these into a combo meal to increase average spend.
- Test new items as limited-time offers and track their sales against established dishes. If a new dessert sells as well or better than your classic cheesecake, consider adding it permanently.
- Pay attention to customer modifications. If many orders for your steak include requests for extra sauce or specific cooking preferences, you might create new menu items or upsells based on these preferences.
- Use visual dashboards and reports to share insights with your kitchen and front-of-house teams. When everyone understands what’s trending, the entire team can contribute to improving guest experience.
Connect POS with Inventory for Smarter Purchasing
Knowing what sells is only half the equation. When POS data is combined with inventory tracking, you can:
- Reduce waste by ordering exactly what’s needed based on actual sales. For example, if your POS shows decreasing demand for a particular pasta sauce, you can order less of that ingredient.
- Identify which ingredients are most consumed to prioritize their purchase and reduce the risk of stockouts.
- Create specials that use surplus or soon-to-expire ingredients, turning potential waste into profitable dishes.
- Streamline ordering and prep schedules to match real demand rather than guesses.
- Refine recipes to improve profit margins by analyzing the relationship between ingredient costs and menu pricing.
When your kitchen and sales floor are aligned through data, the entire restaurant operates more efficiently and profitably.
A Smarter Menu, Backed by Numbers
Every restaurant has hidden stars on its menu. Your POS data can help you find those stars early, promote them at the right time, and optimize your menu for lasting success.
For example, a local café might find that its iced coffee orders surge during the summer months, indicating an opportunity to create seasonal cold beverage specials. Another restaurant might discover a particular appetizer that pairs well with wine orders, inspiring a new pairing promotion.
Instead of changing menus based on guesswork or trends, you can make informed, data-backed decisions that align with your customers’ real preferences.
You don’t need to be a data scientist to make smarter menu decisions. Your POS system is already telling a story through its data. The more you pay attention and act on these insights, the more confident and consistent your decisions will become.
Your next best-seller is not a mystery. It’s already on your menu, waiting for you to discover it.





